Markets Morning Newsletters

A quick look at the G20 implications – Macro Markets Morning 28 June 2019

on June 28, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • China is playing the Trump game using both its own media and commentators as well as having “sources” background US press on what President Xi plans to deliver to President Trump at G20. In doing that we can get a window into what may happen at the meeting Saturday while China also gets to have some control of the narrative.
  • Markets seem hopeful that a deal might be on the way if US stocks up, gold downish, and the US dollar’s move are any guide. But is that reasonable given where the protagonists have moved to in the past two months?
  • Probably not, so today I look at the three main scenarios I see and what that means for markets.

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter. 

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaA quick look at the G20 implications – Macro Markets Morning 28 June 2019

Macro Markets Morning 27 June 2019

on June 27, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The pre-positioning before G20 is happening. Yes talks are underway, but it’s clear the US doesn’t think a deal will get done with President Trump already suggesting Plan B is 10% not 25% tariffs if he can’t get Xi to fold. China won’t like that.
  • Neither will stocks which are a little more cautious right now with falls in Asia, most of Europe, and the US. The S&P finished at 2913,down just a smidge with a -0.12% dip. US bonds though went in the other direction as it becomes clear the Fed is waiting for more information to act.
  • On forex markes we got a break down in correlations so it wasn’t all about the Greenback which didnt do much, but the CAD, Aussie, and Kiwi did well. As di WTI after a big draw, while gold reversed sharply and is at $1407.

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter. 

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaMacro Markets Morning 27 June 2019

Macro Markets Morning 26 June 2019

on June 26, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Fed chair Powell reinforced by feeling Robert Kaplan is at the heart of Fed thinking with his comments overnight suggesting the Fed won’t be bullied by markets [or President Trump] and is still wanting to get a bit more clarity on trade and the outlook.
  • Stocks didn’t like that too much, though it is equally correct to say this little dip the past couple of days is consistent with usual price action after a record and running into such as big event as G20 this weekend – so Europe was down, the US too with the S&P 500 at 2917, off 0.9%.
  • Gold had a rip snorting rally but then reversed, oil remains firm, copper rallied, and the USD is a little better bid this morning. US 10’s are below 2%, German 10’s -0.33% :S

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter. 

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaMacro Markets Morning 26 June 2019

– Macro Markets Morning 25 June 2019

on June 25, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • China wants to be treated fairly, President trump seems less inclined to fight. Normally that would be a good sign. But the division between the two sides suggests an agreement to keep talking might be the best we can hope for out of G20.
  • Traders might be thinking that too, or at least that they have priced in a lot given Europe was lower, US stocks stalled, bond yields rallied again, and the Russell 2000 fell for the 3rd day in a row. 
  • That the data in the US was again poor is another indicator of trouble ahead, that hurt the USD while Dallas Fed boss Robert Kaplan gave a warning for both interest rate and stock bulls.

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter. 

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg Mckenna– Macro Markets Morning 25 June 2019

Can we really get a deal? – Macro Markets Morning 24 June 2019

on June 24, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • It’s all about G20 really this week as President trump makes it clear in his actions on Iran, on Turkey, North Korea, and recently Mexico that he is in transnational, deal making, mode. Can he do it though? Will China allow him? We can probably hope for a somewhat positive outcome however.
  • He’ll likely try to keep the bid in stocks too now US markets are making fresh record highs. And he’ll cheer his belligerence at the Fed as rate cuts come on the table and teh USD starts to slip. So much winning he’ll be telling himself.
  • It’s a big week, a fluid one.

And in case you missed the weekly over the weekend you can find it here 

And If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaCan we really get a deal? – Macro Markets Morning 24 June 2019

Fed opens the door to rate cuts – Macro Markets Morning 20 June 2019

on June 20, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The market has reacted to the FOMC statement and Powell press conference as if a rate cut in July is guaranteed. But it seems that while the Fed has opened the door how G20 and trade goes is likely the key to how soon rates are cut.
  • That said. during the press conference though Powell did intimate that the current conditions are enough for a cut it is simply that FOMC members are waiting to see if there is persistence of the risks to the outlook.
  • The key takeaway is that the Fed has marked itself to market and in saying – again during the press conference – that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure Powell has signalled it is only a matter of time till rates start being cut in order to “SUSTAIN THE EXPANSION”.

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaFed opens the door to rate cuts – Macro Markets Morning 20 June 2019

Trade War Glasnost – Macro Markets Morning 19 June 2019

on June 19, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The US side sought out China and requested a call between the two Presidents it seems with the result being that there is a meeting between Trump and Xi after all at the G20.
  • That’s good news and stocks loved i Through the promise of stimulus from Mario Draghi in Europe and continentals bourses really loved it with the DAX up 2% while the S&P rose 1% to 2917 – breaking the range.
  • Oil ripped higher too, but bonds did not. Because central banks are signalling lower rates. It’s a perfect tailwind for stocks and risk assets if the trade battle can see a deal at G20. We’ll see. 

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaTrade War Glasnost – Macro Markets Morning 19 June 2019

Aussie under pressure, stocks hold firm, oil drops – Macro Markets Morning 18 June 2019

on June 18, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • It was a fairly quiet day’s trade Monday but there were still plenty of moving parts. Bond yields sold off and then recovered, stocks were mostly higher and forex saw the USD come under a little pressure before recovering.
  • The Aussie dollar remains friendless however. It’s not getting beaten up but it’s drifting a little as the trade war drags and folks worry about the global growth outlook.
  • Oil was interesting in that the Ira’s warned they will breach their nuclear agreement, had a meeting with the Russians which came to nothing, and we heard chat the US is sending more troops to the Middle East – yet oil fell more than 1%.

I’ve also updated my positioning thoughts for the week here is a link.

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaAussie under pressure, stocks hold firm, oil drops – Macro Markets Morning 18 June 2019

Positioning Thoughts and System Signals on Macro Markets – June 17 2019

on June 18, 2019

G’day folks,

Here is a dedicated short note on my Positioning thoughts and the system. This, I hope, will then allow you to have a look at your own charts and protocols and see where maybe my thoughts and system accord with OR CHALLENGE your own.

I hope then this is where I can add real value.

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Greg MckennaPositioning Thoughts and System Signals on Macro Markets – June 17 2019

The Fed will dominate this week – Macro Markets Morning 17 June 2019

on June 17, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The Fed, BoE, and BoJ all meet this week. But it is the Fed which poses the greatest market risk given so much is priced into expectations that a cut might come this week and will come by July.
  • In the lead up Friday and with the G20 now visible over the horizon US and globally stocks were mostly read, but also mostly mildly so.
  • The USD got its mojo back, gold had a big run then ugly reversal, the Aussie dollar is on the brink, and the conflict bid in oil couldn’t stop it from still having a down week.

And in case you missed the weekly over the weekend here is a link. 

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaThe Fed will dominate this week – Macro Markets Morning 17 June 2019