Markets Morning Newsletters

Stocks drift, USD holds, Aussie belted – Macro Markets Morning 22nd February 2019

on February 22, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The closer we get to the actual trade announcement the greater the likelihood that some profits – on this massive post Christmas rally – would be booked. That especially the case as momentum has stalled. So the S&P 500 was down about 0.35% to 2,724 overnight.
  • The USD fought back after a big dip to 6.69 in USDCNH terms. The Greenback looks okay – better than the Aussie and Kiwi dollar’s anyway.
  • Bonds were a little higher in rate, gold reversed, copper too, oil was essentially stable.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaStocks drift, USD holds, Aussie belted – Macro Markets Morning 22nd February 2019

Fed minutes show a patient NOT dovish bank– Macro Markets Morning 20th February 2019

on February 21, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The Fed minutes are out and it admitted both that it’s mis-communication had contributed to the markets turmoil last year and that the outlook for the US economy is not as dire as the markets guestimates at the time of the funk. So it’s reiterated the Powell put is alive and well.
  • But the minutes also show the Fed is genuinely patient, not dovish.
  • The washup has been smallish moves on US stocks and the USD got a little of its mojo back.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaFed minutes show a patient NOT dovish bank– Macro Markets Morning 20th February 2019

Gold, Copper, and the US dollar – Macro Markets Morning 20th February 2019

on February 20, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • US stocks didn’t rock back with over exuberance but they did finish higher on the day amid more Fed dovishness and decent results from Walmart. At the close the S&P 500 was up 0.15% at 2,779…..edging closer to the range top.
  • The big news though, for forex markets and news agencies though was the rehash of a story saying the US wants China to keep its currency stable – oh the paradox of the process that says the state should stay out of industrial policy but be involved in foreign exchange markets. So the DXY is at 96.52 and USDCNH is down at 6.7456.
  • Gold busted higher, oil has a bid, copper broke out. It’s all good.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaGold, Copper, and the US dollar – Macro Markets Morning 20th February 2019

Aussie and Kiwi a little offered and where is the key level for stocks – London/European Open 19th February 2019

on February 19, 2019

Hi Folks,

I’ve shut Platinum because it was just too much and the 7 day a week workload was impacting heavily on my family and frankly on my desire to get out of bed at 4am each day to do the morning Newsletter and Video.

Those two productions are my stock and trade and they are of primary import.

But one thing I did enjoy doing was updating Platinum members in the afternoon when I had something to say and before the European open.

So you’ll see an afternoon note pop into you inboxes a couple or a few times a week depending on what happens during the day.

More after the jump

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Greg MckennaAussie and Kiwi a little offered and where is the key level for stocks – London/European Open 19th February 2019

Gold and Oil bid, China still sliding – Macro Markets Morning 19th February 2019

on February 19, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The absence of the US and a Monday market with few fresh catalysts over the weekend saw price action somewhat constrained to kick off the week. Stocks in Europe were mixed and didn’t take the China lead which saw the Shanghai comp rally 2.68% Monday.
  • The US dollar tested support in DXY, Euro, and other terms and has lost a smidge of ground with EURUSD at 1.1313. Aussie and kiwi are lower though.
  • Gold is back at recent highs, the oil break out continues and the almost forgotten Bitcoin has rallied close to 9%.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaGold and Oil bid, China still sliding – Macro Markets Morning 19th February 2019

Deal or no deal? – Macro Markets Morning 18th February 2019

on February 18, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The market want’s the trade deal to happen and the US side seems snookered into not threatening that assumption by some deft Chinese language. That’s my takeaway from Friday’s move anyway.
  • That meant the S&P 500 rallied another 1.1% to finish at 2,775 with a a sea of green across other US and European stock markets. The SPI rose more than 50 points as well.
  • On Forex markets the USD was better bid initially as SOMA and comments from the ECB of easing hurt the Euro, but then US industrial production missed by a mile – Euro is 1.1296 this morning.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaDeal or no deal? – Macro Markets Morning 18th February 2019

Ugh, US retail sales. Yuk! – Macro Markets Morning 15th February 2019

on February 15, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • UGLY, seriously ugly. US retail sales fell off a cliff with a print that seems at odds with the private sector Redbook series. But data is data and the HUGE 1.2% fall in December sales was the weakest print since September 2009.
  • But nothing defeats the stock market bulls at the moment with the selling associated with the shock print – and news the trade deal is stalled on the hard stuff – reversed to see the S&P 500 up until we heard president Trump was going all “national emergency” on the wall.
  • The retail sales did hurt the USD though. It was doing fine but has given up the gains, gold and oil are up too, copper down, and naturally bonds rallied.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaUgh, US retail sales. Yuk! – Macro Markets Morning 15th February 2019

USD, stocks, and bond rates rise – Macro Markets Morning 14th February 2019

on February 14, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The latest positive sounds on the trade talks and a lack of sellers (no real money buyers to take profit because they are on the sidelines) saw stocks in the US rally again Wednesday. The S&P rose 0.3% to 2,753. That’s back above the 200 day moving average.
  • Europe had a good day on its bourses as well and the US dollar was stronger as well as the evidence continues to flood in European growth is struggling.
  • The DXY is up half a percent, Euro down the same, gold and silver are down a little but oil is higher on Saudi tightening.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaUSD, stocks, and bond rates rise – Macro Markets Morning 14th February 2019

Stocks hit significant levels, USD reverses – Macro Markets Morning 13th February 2019

on February 13, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The latest BAML money manager survey shows the big funds are not part of this rally. That could mean it’s thin air, or thay may need to chase it. Either way stocks surged again and the S&P 500 is at the 200 day moving average after a 1.33% gain to 2745.
  • The USD gave back yesterday’s gains and is back at 96.70 in DXY terms and 1.1330 in Euro terms. That lifted the weight of commodities with oil particularly well bid inside this $5 range its been trading lately.
  • oh, and president Trump is reported to be going to fold on the Wall and government shutdown demands. Folks are extrapolating that to the China trade spat.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaStocks hit significant levels, USD reverses – Macro Markets Morning 13th February 2019

The USD is back – Macro Markets Morning 12th February 2019

on February 12, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Stocks in the US end mixed as the discussion moves to earnings recession and momentum stalls in the rally without fresh headlines to catalyse buying. At the close of play the S&P 500 was up just 2 points.
  • The big story though is that like Austin powers the USD has its Mojo back. Yeah baby. DXY is at 97.05 while the Euro is at 1.1275, USDJPY 110.37!
  • Commodities and commodity bloc currencies are all lower too, as is the Chinese Yuan.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaThe USD is back – Macro Markets Morning 12th February 2019