Markets Morning Newsletters

Macro Markets Morning 20122018

on December 20, 2018

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

If you are long stocks you’ll probably disagree, but we should all rejoice at what Chair Powell and his Fed did Wednesday. That’s because in hiking rates, in signalling less rate hikes than previous forecast, in acknowledging the uncertainty in the outlook for 2019, and clearly signalling a pause is coming to Fed rate hikes the FOMC and its chair showed the adults are still in charge.

That is important for the long term health of the economy in the US and the globe. It asserts main Street over Wall Street and though President trump may not be pleased he should be. This Fed is his best chance of re-election in 2020 because it is clearly setting itself a task of keeping the economy humming.

Investors don’t agree though and stocks were belted and bonds bid. Risk currencies were sold, the US dollar rallied, but gold fell. What interesting times we live in.

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A quick bit of housing keeping. 

Vimeo send me an apology overnight about one of their bots locking my account. They say it won’t happen again.

That said though I will post on Vimeo but also give a link to my OneDrive where I will store the video each day – you choose which way you want to watch it and you’ll always have an option if one method goes awry.

Have a great days trade.

Greg

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Greg MckennaMacro Markets Morning 20122018

Macro Markets Morning 18122018

on December 19, 2018

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

Nobody wants to ruin Christmas. Certainly not in their first year as Fed chair and certainly not when delivering what has been the most telegraphed increase in US interest rates in some time. The market has known for months a move is coming.

But now because stocks are off a little, vested interests from the President, to stock brokers, money managers, and hedge funders all say Powell and the FOMC should abandon an pretext to data dependency for the primacy of stocks and the markets judgement that the data on which the Fed will be dependent in the future will be poor. Because it’s not yet.

So, one groups guess for another. That means if Powell’s Fed blinks then all pretences of the primacy of the economy over markets will end. Everything will be now financialised. But Powell is strong enough to hike and then prudently signal data dependency and a pause in 2019.

But will that be enough? Or will the grandkids be asked Powell if what the president says is true – is he really the Grinch who stole Christmas?.

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A quick bit of housing keeping. 

There have been a few teething issues this week with the emails and the video link. I apologise for that. My ability to communicate my wishes to the webguy when he was setting everything up was not as good as I had hoped. Entirely my fault.

So the video is now password protected and in Vimeo – you can download the app for your phone and I’m working on a way to have it embedded on the site too.

And this newsletter should be coming to you as an excerpt with a read more button below from now on.

You’ll also see you get an afternoon update as well now which is a bit on Asian trade, my chart of the day, and also for marketing purposes.

Any questions, thoughts, queries, suggestions for improvement, or brickbats feel free to contact me.

Greg

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Greg MckennaMacro Markets Morning 18122018

Macro Markets Morning 18122018

on December 18, 2018

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

This is the week it gets real for Jerome Powell. The President is Tweeting at him to pause and stock markets are virtually begging him not to hike so they can stop falling. Will he though? Will he set his legacy so early in his term as the guy who – like Greenspan – did everything he could to backstop stocks.

There is a growing chance of that even though the S&P still hasn’t even had a 38.2% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally. It’s close now, and the risks are rising, but so far it’s just a retracement. Or are we outlawing those now too.

So yeah stocks are down bigtime. That and the president’s tweet have hurt the USD a little but this looks like a stocks style liquidation event. The question is whether it is over or just getting started. Powell will influence that.

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A big thanks again to those who have signed up already –  I’m looking forward to sharing this journey with you.

For those who haven’t had a chance yet (busy time of year and all that) remember that we’ll be switching over to the mckennamacro.com site from today so you need .be a subscriber to read the full note. The 12 month discount launch special is still on.

For those who would like to join up –  HERE”S THE LINK 

MAKE SURE YOU USE YOUR 25% LAUNCH DISCOUNT COUPON GregMcKennaLaunch

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Greg MckennaMacro Markets Morning 18122018

Markets Morning 17122018

on December 17, 2018

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

There are so many traders and commentators who desperately want the Fed this week to wax dovish to rescue their positions and to kick off the much anticipated Santa Rally. But the price action of the last two week’s suggests also that there are plenty of sceptics out there focussed on the slowdown in China, in Europe, and the anticipated but not yet arrived slowdown in the US.

If anything though, recent data in the US suggests the Fed is likely to leave the doves hanging – even if it does signal a pause in 2019. A pause is coming, it would be prudent to evaluate policy which activates with a lag as monetary policy does. But with wages solid and GDP on track for another 3% run rate this quarter, the data dependent Fed is more likely to reiterate recent guidance than take a fresh dovish tilt.

With stocks at range lows and the US dollar just below its recent peak 2018 is not done yet. Wednesday looms as make or break for many investors year. How will Jerome Powell chart those treacherous waters?

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I put out my first free weekly newsletter yesterday and more than 700 of you read it – THANKS. But, if you haven’t seen it yet you can read it here.  

A big thanks again to those who have signed up already –  I’m looking forward to sharing this journey with you.

For those who haven’t had a chance yet (busy time of year and all that) remember that we’ll be switching over to the mckennamacro.com site from today so you need .be a subscriber to read the full note. The 12 month discount launch special is still on.

For those who would like to join up –  HERE”S THE LINK 

MAKE SURE YOU USE YOUR 25% LAUNCH DISCOUNT COUPON GregMcKennaLaunch

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Greg MckennaMarkets Morning 17122018

Markets Morning 13122018

on December 13, 2018

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

President Trump is bullish on getting an agreement with China sorted and happy to bargain the Huawei case and its CFO as part of that deal. But the market’s bullishness on his bullishness faded in New York afternoon trade. So we are back where we were – stuck in a volatility cluster.

Bonds rose after a longish tail on the 10-year auction and the USD lost a little ground as Sterling bounced on hopes that a hard Brexit has faded with May holding onto Number 10.

Now for the ECB and next week, the Fed

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 It’s LAUNCH DAY -1

Thanks to everyone who signed up yesterday – I’m looking forward to sharing this journey with you. For those who haven’t had a chance yet (busy time of year and all that) remember that we’ll be switching over to the mckennamacro.com site as of Monday.For those who would like to join up , HERE”S THE LINK 

MAKE SURE YOU USE YOUR 25% LAUNCH DISCOUNT COUPON GregMcKennaLaunch

Full posts and videos will be subscriber only from Monday, December 17 2018
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Greg MckennaMarkets Morning 13122018

Markets Morning 12122018

on December 12, 2018

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

Was it a fight in the Oval Office about building the wall or was it residual concerns about the Trade War which knocked stocks from their highs? Either way that was the end result as a positive day turned less positivefor the Nasdaq and negative for the Dow and S&P.

Base Building or building for a break? It’s hard to tell.

Bond rates and the USD remained firm, oil is higher, and Brexit messiness hit Sterling again.

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 It’s LAUNCH DAY

I’ve structured an offer which should suit all manner of traders and investors and which is based on the feedback I’ve received from subscribers over the past 4 months.
Whether you are a little way along your trading journey or a grizzled pro I’m sure you’ll find an offer that suits your trading and investing goals.If you haven’t seen the email yet, HERE”S THE LINK MAKE SURE YOU USE YOUR 25% LAUNCH DISCOUNT COUPON GregMcKennaLaunch

Full posts and videos will be subscriber only from Monday, December 17 2018
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Greg MckennaMarkets Morning 12122018

Markets Morning 11122018

on December 11, 2018

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

Stocks went over the precipice last night but somehow buyers emerged with the S&P 500 below 2,600 and the index recovered to finish in the green – as did the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones. Maybe Apples counter claim in China to Qualcomms victory whih banned some iPhone sales was all that was needed.

Or perhaps it was the confidence in the economy shown by bond traders who didnt get caught in the stocks downdraft. The USD recovered as a hard Brexit becomes a reality once more and as traders took a closer look at France and Europe more broadly.

The volatility is not done yet folks

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 T minus 1 till LAUNCH DAY
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adminMarkets Morning 11122018

Markets Morning 10122018

on December 10, 2018

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

Will teh trade truce stick in the face of the Huawei CFO’s arrest? The US thinks it will. And while the Chinese have berated both the Canadian and US ambassador there is no sign yet they are abandoning the agreements.

Why would they? Chinese trade and inflation data over the weekend suggests China needs a deal, a de-escalation in hostilities. But traders and markets are fretting, stocks are back at range lows, the Aussie dollar is getting hit, and of course the chat has increased the Fed will pause – maybe even in December.

Another big week begins.

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As part of the offer for subscribers, I have set up IB agreements with SMARTMarkets and Blueberry Markets so that subscribers who wish to can open accounts with these two firms and EARN UP TO 100% REBATE on their subscription cost. I’ll share both links tomorrow. 

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adminMarkets Morning 10122018

Markets Morning 07122018

on December 7, 2018

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

Nothing to see here. Move along, please.

Volatility is volatility, in the past 24 hours we’ve seen the two sides to that coin with big falls and then a big recovery in the past 4 or 5 hours. That doesn’t mean crisis averted, it just means we are in a volatility cluster.

With non-farms tonight – that’s unlikely to change in a hurry. It’s just I have no idea where the next 2 or 3% gain for stocks and thus cross market assets is going to be because volatility has two faces.

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Almost there but I need your help. Can you please fill out this ONE QUESTION survey.The web guy says I should send an email with a link to the note to protect my IP. But I reckon I can trust my audience to do that and think a full email in your inbox is easier.

But, the key is what you think – I’m the product, you’re the customer.

THANKS in advance – link again.

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adminMarkets Morning 07122018

Markets Morning 06122018

on December 6, 2018

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

There has been lots of sound an fury this week in markets. But for all the headlines big rallies and then reversals in stocks we are still in big old ranges save for the signal the bonds are telling us.

That’s an important narrative. But so too is the message both the Chinese and US are trying to get across – there has been a genuine thaw in relations and talks and plans are genuinely being made. And of course the Fed’s Beige book was hardly weak.

So don’t get too bearish on stocks, on the US dollar, or expect US 10’s to fall much more than another 5 to 10 points. Not at the moment and not unless the recent stock market lows give way.

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The web guy says he’d like a softer launch than the blanket one was I going with this week – so give me a few days and I’ll be back with the offer.  
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adminMarkets Morning 06122018