Markets Morning Newsletters

Stocks slip, the USD surges, the ECB capitulates – Macro Markets Morning 8th March 2019

on March 8, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The globe is slowing and central banks have nothing. That’s the realisation markets will ultimately come to but for now Fed patience and ECB about turn still have some traction. That’s likely to change.
  • Indeed last night’s downgrades to EU growth and inflation actually seem to have spooked a few traders and investors – not least Euro bulls with the single currency at 1.1189.
  • Stocks swooned too with red across Europe and the S&P 500 down 0.8% to 2,748. EMFX, the AUDUSD, and bond rates are also lower.
Now, Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaStocks slip, the USD surges, the ECB capitulates – Macro Markets Morning 8th March 2019

Stocks slipping despite President Trump’s attempts to goose them – Macro Markets Morning 7th March 2019

on March 7, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The President wants a trade deal to goose stocks, the Fed will continue to be patient, and the ECB is looking to add more stimulus. These are all potential bull points for stocks – yet in the US the S&P 500 ended down 18 points, 0.65% at 2771.
  • The Aussie is lower, as are the Kiwi, CAD, and most of the Emerging Forex world. The Euro might be holding and the DXY’s rally stalled but this is a move worth watching.
  • Gold, oil, copper, and bonds were flat to down.
Now, Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaStocks slipping despite President Trump’s attempts to goose them – Macro Markets Morning 7th March 2019

Services PMI’s show the global economy is not dead yet – Macro Markets Morning 6th March 2019

on March 6, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Services PMI’s in Europe and the US were a little better than expected which we need to file away in the memory bank. It didn’t do stocks or the Euro much good though with the S&P 500 down 3 points to 2,789 as momentum stalls while the EURUSD is at 1.1305 down 0.27%.
  • Elsewhere I’m curious if the trade deal might be going off the rails as the hawks hgihlight the IP and security issues that can’t be separated from the overall debate – that’s not priced.
  • Gold was lower, copper a little higher, and the AUDUSD found its feet near 0.7050 again as the USD lost some of its gains.
Now, Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaServices PMI’s show the global economy is not dead yet – Macro Markets Morning 6th March 2019

Diminshing returns for the President as the Dollar holds and stocks slip – Macro Markets Morning 5th March 2019

on March 5, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • President trump didn’t get his way. But he did get a lesson in diminished marginal returns as the trump pump in stocks and Trump tirade on the USD initially hit the mark. But they faded and the S&P finished down 0.4% while the DXY recovered early losses to finish at 96.60.
  • Now we wait. We wait for the raft of data that is being released across the globe this week and we wait to see CHina’s response to the president and the USTR’s pressure.
  • In the meantime gold, copper, and silver are under pressure and the Aussie dollar is holding in despite crumbling fundamentals. It’s RBA day by the way 🙂
Now, Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaDiminshing returns for the President as the Dollar holds and stocks slip – Macro Markets Morning 5th March 2019

China trade positivity and Trump comments to set early week tone – Macro Markets Morning 1st March 2019

on March 4, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • President Trump had a busy weekend telling the Chinese it’s time to drop agriculture tariffs, taking a pop at Fed chair Jerome Powell, said the US dollar is too strong, and then retweeted a comment from last week noting how strong stocks were on his watch.
  • He’s trying too hard in the wake of the failure in Hanoi, but he’s also setting markets up to react to these multiple stimuli. Will China agree to drop tariffs? If they do, or don’t, it’s going to be a huge signal to markets. But then again if markets ignore the president that is a signal in itself.
  • Besides that stocks popped with the S&P 500 closing at 2,803, the USD fought back and US 10 year rates kept rising. With all the data it’s going to be a big week.
Now, Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaChina trade positivity and Trump comments to set early week tone – Macro Markets Morning 1st March 2019

Stocks drift for a third day, USD fights back – Macro Markets Morning 1st March 2019

on March 1, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Volatility is falling across a number of markets. In some ways that’s good, in others its a warning to get ready for the phase transition. To that end the S&P still hovers below an important region and closed at 2,784 – off 0.3%.
  • The USD was belted at one point but fought back to be at 96.20 in DXY terms and 1.1368 in EURUSD terms. AUDUSD is under pressure from domestic and China concerns – its at 0.7095.
  • As President trump walks away from the North Korean Summit the big question si does it mean anything for China trade – you know what I’ll say…
Now, Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaStocks drift for a third day, USD fights back – Macro Markets Morning 1st March 2019

OIl and 10’s rise, stocks drift even after a hawkish USTR spoke – Macro Markets Morning 28th February 2019

on February 28, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Oil bounced after Saudi oil minister Khalid al-Falih asid he was chilled but just stabilising the market. That US inventories had a massive draw certainly helped too – WTI is up 2.65% to $56.98.
  • Stocks drifted again, even though USTR Robert Lighthizer was a bit hawkish on the deal and how the US will measure compliance. So at a largely unchanged close of 2,792 the S&P isn’t in too bad shape.
  • Nor the USD which fought back from early weakness to regain 96 in DXY terms and 111 in USD terms. GBP is up again on positive Brexit while the economy is hurting the Aussie dollar.
Now, Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaOIl and 10’s rise, stocks drift even after a hawkish USTR spoke – Macro Markets Morning 28th February 2019

Sterling roars, stocks drift, data weak – Macro Markets Morning 27th February 2019

on February 27, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • No deal Brexit is almost certainly off the table after Mrs May said parliament will vote on it if her deal doesn’t pass in march. The Pound cheered, the FTSE should have as well, but currency impacts weighted.
  • In the US it was  alack of momentum and no fresh news that saw stocks closed in a lacklustre fashion with the S&P 500 off 2 points. It so far impervious to the weaker data flow, but the USD is not – housing starts and a dovish jay Powell hurt it again.
  • So this morning GBPUSD is up 1.2%, the DXY touched 96, the Euro is closing in on 1.14 and the Aussie 72 cents
Now, Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaSterling roars, stocks drift, data weak – Macro Markets Morning 27th February 2019

Trump tweets hit oil but fail to lift stocks – Macro Markets Morning 26th February 2019

on February 26, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • China stocks soared on the positive trade news yesterday but US traders were more circumspect given the decision to forestall the tariff increase was hardly fresh news and the S&P at 2,796 is at the top of its range.
  • But the fact it wasn’t news didn’t stop Aussie dollar, Kiwi, and USDJPY traders hitting the offer to take these three pairs higher.
  • The CRB is down more than 1% on the back of a little fade in copper, gold, and silver and a big dip – 3% – in oil after President Trump tweet that OPEC should “relax” and that the world economy is too “fragile’ for higher prices. he’s right about that.
Now, Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaTrump tweets hit oil but fail to lift stocks – Macro Markets Morning 26th February 2019

Trade truce buoys risk – Macro Markets Morning 25th February 2019

on February 25, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The proximity of a trade deal is going to be occupying and exercising traders minds in the early part of this week as they wonder if all the good news is already priced. My guess is yes, and no.
  • Friday though the S&P 500 gained 13 handles in the last couple of hours after the positive trade news broke – it finished at 2,792 for a gain of 0.64%, 17 points. Likewise the Yuan caught a bid and is at 6.70 this morning.
  • So we kick off the week in a positive and anticipatory mood, can it hold through the data flow late week? We’ll see.
And, in case you missed it here’s a link to the weekly I put out Sunday, there is lots in it this week.
Now, Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaTrade truce buoys risk – Macro Markets Morning 25th February 2019