Markets Morning Newsletters

Risk assets still pressured, USD on back foot – Macro Markets Morning 24th January 2019

on January 24, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The tight correlations in markets are holding which tells us the market hasn’t yet washed the volatility away. Stocks in the US were up initially, then down, then up again at the close with the S&P 500 up 0.22% to 2,638.
  • USDJPY, the Aussie and other “risky” currencies were a little higher as the USD slipped. The pound surged as the chances of no-deal seem to recede as labour moves to support initiatives to take it the table. GBPUSD is at 1.3066.
  • Elsewhere oil is lower, gold too despite the US get involved in Venezuelan politics with President Trump naming the opposition leader, Juan Guaidó, as the person the US recognises as President.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaRisk assets still pressured, USD on back foot – Macro Markets Morning 24th January 2019

Growth fears and trade talks re-emerge as risks – Macro Markets Morning 23rd January 2019

on January 23, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Worries about global growth, trade, and an exhausted bull have seen stocks end red on Tuesday with the S&P 500 down 1.4% at 2,633. Naturally risk assets have gone with that move in sentiment, USDJPY is lower, gold has bounced, bond rates are lower, oil has rolled over, and the Aussie dollar is back near 71 cents
  • This just might be the start of the post recovery reversal where traders and investors have to decide whether this is the next leg lower or a buying opportunity. Could get messy
  • Speaking of which Brexit messiness continues and Seth Klarman has warned about a messy period ahead for the globe and markets.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaGrowth fears and trade talks re-emerge as risks – Macro Markets Morning 23rd January 2019

Markets drift with the US out as China massages data – Macro Markets Morning 22nd January 2019

on January 22, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Without the US market lead and after China’s data confirmed its slowdown European stocks were lower to start the week. Asia bounced though, likely because the China data could have been worse and hopes of more Chinese stimulus.
  • The Aussie and Kiwi are a little bit weaker amid what’s been a fairly quiet 24 hours on forex markets. As the IMF and others downgrade global growth, but keep US expectations steady!!!
  • Theresa May announced her Plan B for Brexit and guess what, it’s Plan A still – pretty much anyway.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaMarkets drift with the US out as China massages data – Macro Markets Morning 22nd January 2019

More risk rally? China data today will be huge – Macro Markets Morning 21st January 2019

on January 21, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The risk rally continued Friday with a sea of green across global stock markets. The S&P 500 finished 1.3% higher at 2,670, Gold fell to $1,280, WTI oil rose 3.25% to $53.80, and US 10’s finished at 2.78%. The USD was stronger too with the DXY at 96.36
  • That was all on the hope of a break in the US China trade impasse as the Chinese were reported to have offered the president a $1 trillion pledge to buy more exports over the the next 6 years. The US want’s it in two years apparently – 2020 beckons.
  • The shutdown continues, Davos is starting though many heads of governments are otherwise occupied with troubles at home, and today we get the release of China’s monthly triple treat of retail sales, investment, and industrial production data for December. But we also get Q4 GDP which the pundits reckon will print 6.4% – could be a big day. Especially as it’s martin luther King Day in the US so they’re out.
  • I’m leery of the risk rally, but I don’t have sell signals yet.
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A quick bit of housing keeping. 

If you haven’t had a chance to look at the weekly it is here.

And Platinum members your new and improved Weekly Report is here.

Greg

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Greg MckennaMore risk rally? China data today will be huge – Macro Markets Morning 21st January 2019

Macro Markets Morning 18th January 2019

on January 18, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

US stocks, using the S&P 500 as a bellwether, tested support in Asia and early Europe Thursday before bouncing neatly back through the highs of the week in New York trade – aided by some spurious trade news. Regardless, that’s positive for the bulls and the uptrend remains intact for the moment.

The USD likewise reversed – from early strength – against the majors but it is universally stronger against emerging market currencies, that’s interesting.

And of course the Brexit messiness continues – but forex traders are increasingly betting a HARD Brexit is off the table

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A quick bit of housing keeping. 

I’ve changed the format a little to put headings in place for the different key points I’m making – instead of the run of bullet points.

Hopefully this aids readability. But let me know if you like or loathe it.

Greg

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Greg MckennaMacro Markets Morning 18th January 2019

Macro Markets Morning 17th January 2019

on January 17, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

Theresa May survived her no-confidence motion, now for Plan-B. Or is C, D, or E? Anyway GBP was remarkably quiet as the risk rally in global markets, but not the FTSE, continued. There was a little hiccup late in the day with news on the DoJ prosecution of Huawei which took stocks off their highs.

That might be an important inflection point.

Time will tell, for the moment, risk is still on and the USD is catching a bid once more.

Let’s dive in
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Greg MckennaMacro Markets Morning 17th January 2019

Macro Markets Morning 16th January 2019

on January 16, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

Brexit is withering on the vine. Mrs May’s deal was soundly defeated Tuesday and Sterling subsequently rallied because traders are betting that means the chances of a no-deal Brexit, indeed any Brexit at all are receding. She has to get past the no-confidence vote first. But either way the UK’s future in or out of Europe is uncertain.

Stocks didn’t care though as China stimulus and a Netflix pre-earnings price rise helped sentiment. The USD is back above the break down level and the Euro looks crook – just like its economy.

Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaMacro Markets Morning 16th January 2019

Macro Markets Morning 15th January 2019

on January 15, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

China’s big surplus but weak import and export data didn’t harm risk assets and sentiment as much as it could have. Though what we did see was a stall in US stocks rally under resistance with some falls across global stock markets in general. The USD was a little stronger but off its highs but oil and copper did react – that’s noteworthy.

The takeaway is caution and uncertainty. Where will the next shoe drop traders are wondering, will the Brexit vote today destabilise markets, what will earnings season reveal, where exactly is global growth headed, and what’s going on in the US economy.

Do nothing is now the default it seems – till the next shoe drops anyway.

Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaMacro Markets Morning 15th January 2019

Earnings season key to the risk rally – Macro Markets Morning 14 January 2019

on January 14, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

Have earnings expectations been beaten down too far? Or are the recessionistas right and US stocks – just below resistance – about to drag global markets back into a funk.

That’s the key question that traders are asking themselves as we start the new week and after the easy bounces have been made in stocks, in bonds, and in oil. There’s also the question of the US dollar, what’s up with the Yuan’s rally, and is the Euro reversal the start of the next big move lower.

It’s going to be another big week

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A quick bit of housing keeping. 

The weekly is out and if you haven’t seen it you can read it here…some idea will pop up here though

And Platinum members have the 43 page chart screen in your inbox…if you haven’t seen it, you can read it here.

Greg

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Greg MckennaEarnings season key to the risk rally – Macro Markets Morning 14 January 2019

Macro Markets Morning 11th January 2019

on January 11, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

I started to get the sense yesterday that with stocks in the target zone and the Fed as dovish as it can be without actually signaling a cut that much of the good news was priced in. Throw in the fact that there seem to be the sticking point on state subsidies and Fed chair Powells signal on flexibility but continued balance sheet reduction and we have a risk rally at targets and waiting for the next catalyst.

Whether or not there is a pause below 2,600 which refreshes for the leg higher or the stall in momentum before the reversal is difficult to know today. But the message from the Fed again – “we will not do anything that threatens to push stocks lower”.

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A quick bit of housing keeping. 

Thanks to all the readers and viewers who dropped me a line after my request for a little help in my video yesterday. I’m sorted for the moment thank you.

Don’t forget if you want to open an account to get a rebate on your subscription fee with Blueberry markets or SmartMarkets please drop me a line and i’ll get you the links

Greg

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Greg MckennaMacro Markets Morning 11th January 2019