Markets Morning Newsletters

Macro Markets Morning 25 July 2019

on July 26, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The ECB was dovish but traders read Mario Draghi as less ebullient about rate cuts than is his usual want and thus reacted poorly to what is still a quite dovish message.
  • That, some company earnings, and a US durabel goods more than twice that which was expected with a 2% print saw stock traders in a funk. The S&P 500 lost half a percent, the DAX 1.3%.
  • German Ifo was crook with a capital C which knocked the Euro down to 1.1100 and while it has fought back to 1.1140 the USD is on the march across the board once more – now for Q2 GDP Friday to set the scene.

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter.   

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaMacro Markets Morning 25 July 2019

Ugh, manufacturing PMI’s look crook easing certain – Macro Markets Morning 25 July 2019

on July 25, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Global manufacturing PMI’s are looking crook again and although services are hanging in better and still expanding the path toward more global easing looks set. The ECB tonight might be the first cab off the rank..
  • What the data also showed is the US is still doing best among the developed economies and offers traders and investors the best prospects. The S&P 500 was up 0.5% at a new record of 3019, the Nasdaq too set a new new benchmark, the DAX joined the party too.
  • Forex markets saw the Aussie under pressure, Sterling rally, but the Euro and DXY are waiting on Mario and the ECB Thursday. It’s a big event especially for gold which is being driven it seems by negative rates. And it’s a huge data day too.

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter.   

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaUgh, manufacturing PMI’s look crook easing certain – Macro Markets Morning 25 July 2019

USD stronger, stocks bid, API draws 10.9 million – Macro Markets Morning 24 July 2019

on July 24, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Hope springs eternal with chat about face to face trade talks giving stocks bulls the hot hand in the   US Tuesday such that the S&P 500 was 0.7% higher at 3005. There was already a rally in Europe though on ECB hope and some interesting earnings. The DAX leapt 1.6% to 12490.
  • The corrollary of the positivity about the ECB of course was lower EU bond rates and a stronger USD with the DXY on the cusp of a break out at 97.70 and Euro down at 1.1150. The Aussie, Kiwi, and CAD all came under pressure again too.
  • On commodity marekts gold is drifting and $1414 is important, API crude drew 10.9 million barrels but that wasn’t as bullsih for oil as you might think. Silver is messy but retains a bid 
  • Wednesday is probably the most important day of data for the week with the release of the “flash” PMI data from Markit for this month. It’s a blatant attempt to get two bites at the marketing cherry for this data but it’s market moving nonetheless. New Home Sales and EIA energy data are also out.

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter. 

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaUSD stronger, stocks bid, API draws 10.9 million – Macro Markets Morning 24 July 2019

Trump belts the Fed again, stocks and oil up – Macro Markets Morning 23 July 2019

on July 23, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • President Trump gave the Fed some monetary policy advice as did his Fed nominee Judy Shelton – no balckout for her yet. We also heard some positive rumblings on trade talks, the dance between Iran and the UK continues, and speaking of the UK we’ll kknow soon who is the next UK Prime Minister – personally I’m hoping for an upset.
  • In some ways the news, such as it was, was more interesting than the overall market moves. Certainly stocks are a little higher with the S&P 500 up 0.3% at 2985, US bonds are stable with the 10’s at 2.05%, gold has its first quite day in ages, silver is still bid and forex markets were fairly stable.
  • Oil markets remain fluid and incredibly sanguine given the goings on in the Straits of Hormuz, that tells you how bearish this market is on demand and supply dymanics right now – WTI is up 0.9% at $56.22 . 

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter. 

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaTrump belts the Fed again, stocks and oil up – Macro Markets Morning 23 July 2019

Now we wait, for Iran and Britain, and for the FOMC meeting – Macro Markets Morning 22 July 2019

on July 22, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The last word is always important and the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren arguing thye US economy doesn’t need a cut might be impoprtant for stock returns in the run up to the end-of-month FOMC meeting. Buyers might just step back a little. 
  • As it was Friday there was a bit of that as the S&P 500 finished down 0.6% at 2976 and back at support. US rates were a little higher with the 2’s at 1.81% and the 10’s at 2.05%. That helped the US dollar with the DXY back at 97.15 and Euro at 1.1214. 
  • But in many ways the two big stories are a little tangental to markets, what exactly is the end game in Hong Kong – for either side. And how is Britain going to handle this clear afront from Iran and what impact is that going to have on geopolitics longer term – oil in the short term. 

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter. 

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

And if you missed the weekly on Sunday here is a link to that piece

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Greg MckennaNow we wait, for Iran and Britain, and for the FOMC meeting – Macro Markets Morning 22 July 2019

The Fed adds volatility in a messy messaging attempt – Macro Markets Morning 19 July 2019

on July 19, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • When is a good time to buy gold? When TINA under central bank financial repression seems to be a vote traders are making right now. And maybe can I add when it becomes clear that central bankers real are making it up and have no idea. The Fed’s John Williams is possibly the best example of that ever Thursday (more below).
  • His message that r-star is half a percent was taken as a sign that july is back at a 50 bps cut so the USD got hit, bonds rallied, and stocks recovered their losses.Gold and silver ripped as there simply is no alternative it seems
  • But now the NYFed is trying to disavow Williams words, he was being academic they say. Central bankers, modern day volatiltiy ampliers who have no idea what they are doing – UGH.  

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter. 

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaThe Fed adds volatility in a messy messaging attempt – Macro Markets Morning 19 July 2019

Stocks and oil continue lower, gold and silver rocket – Macro Markets Morning 18 July 2019

on July 18, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • US stocks are tolling as the earnings flow and concerns about the outlook combine with a mildly negative technical outlook to see buyers step back. So the S&P dipped 0.65% to close at 2984. Europe was lower too, as was most of Asia.
  • But not seemingly concerned about the outlook is the Fed with the Beige Book painting a more benign picture of the slowdown than many of the hand wringers want us all to believe. That didn’t hurt bonds though because, well, stocks were swooning – US 10’s are back at 2.05%.
  • Forex marekts are still waiting for a shoe to drop, silver’s big buyer caught a few foks short, gold went along for the ride but oil was down again.  

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter. 

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaStocks and oil continue lower, gold and silver rocket – Macro Markets Morning 18 July 2019

A very important day, inflection? – Macro Markets Morning 17 July 2019

on July 17, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • US stocks were a little lower Tuesday as the rally faltered wth big bank disappointments and the reality that maybe the US economy isn’t in enough of a funk to deliver the size and scale of Fed cuts the market has priced. That comes after retail sales printed 0.4% beating expectations. 
  • Of course President Trump’s honesty about just where the CHina trade deal is and the emergence of a belligerent new player on the Chinese side didn’t help stocks either. Time for a rally breather? Maybe. Especially given oil fell out of bed with more than 3% losses builfing on theday before’s swoon
  • The USD liked retail lsaes, gold and the Euro did not, Aussie and copper neither. Bond yields were a little higher intially but then stocks…Much to discuss today, some inflection points perhaps.  

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter. 

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaA very important day, inflection? – Macro Markets Morning 17 July 2019

A quiet days trade but much to talk about – Macro Markets Morning 16 July 2019

on July 16, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Bond rallied a little once more with Italy leading the charge once again, that tone helped European stocks whiel in the US new records were eked out.
  • Forex markets were relatively quiet with the DXY havinf an inside day while the Euro failed to break a little resitance line. The Aussie and kiwi did better though as did copper.
  • Maybe that’s because outside of China’s GDP the other data showed stabilisation. Or perhaps because the NYEmpire Manufacruting Index might be a positive canary in the coal mine – we’ll explore that today. .

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter. 

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaA quiet days trade but much to talk about – Macro Markets Morning 16 July 2019

Fed speakers dovish, talk of US recession, stocks new highs – Macro Markets Morning 15 July 2019

on July 15, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Bring out your doves, bring out your doves. Fed chair Powell isn’t alone in signalling that a July rate cut will be the first in a series of cuts because, hey, the pointed headed model builders were, errrrr, wrong he and his colleagues seem to believe.
  • That helped new record closes for the week in US stocks with the S&P at 3013.77 and the Dow at 27332. Other bourses missed the memo though – interesting.
  • Forex traders didn’t though with the US coming under pressure once again with the DXY finishing the week at 96.89, Euro is at 1.1272, and the Aussie is doing well at 0.7020. GOld ripped, oil was becalmed, and 10’s held the break with the 10 year Treasury yield at 2.11% .

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter. 

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trail of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

Oh, and if you missed the weekly over the weekend you can read it here.

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Greg MckennaFed speakers dovish, talk of US recession, stocks new highs – Macro Markets Morning 15 July 2019