Markets Morning Newsletters

The Trade War end game is upon us, maybe – Macro Markets Morning 5th April 2019

on April 5, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • No Donkey, we aren’t there yet. But we are close. That was the message from President Trump and Chinese trade negotiator Liu He after the meetings with USTR were concluded in Washington Thursday. It’s clear both sides want and are close to a deal. Trump said maybe 4 weeks.
  • That was after the bell but the obligatory later rumour hit with 10 minutes of trade left for stocks. So at teh close the S&P 500 was 0.2% to 2,879 – but still below resistance.
  • The USD was a little weaker after very poor German factory data – the DXY is at 97.30 and the Euro is at 1.1225. The Aussie is holding in though while gold and silver had wild nights. 
Now, Let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaThe Trade War end game is upon us, maybe – Macro Markets Morning 5th April 2019

Hopes of a trade truce keep risk assets bid – Macro Markets Morning 4th April 2019

on April 4, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The risk only rally continued with a little goosing release of trade war details 3 minutes before the US close on stocks – good stuff :S Anyway, at the close the S&P was up 0.2% as it closes in on important levels. 
  • The USD was a bit better offered though with the Euro up 0.3% and the greenback down against the commodity bloc and EM forex.
  • Bonds were higher, Germany has a positively yielding 10 year once more and US 10’s are closing in on 2.53%
Now, Let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaHopes of a trade truce keep risk assets bid – Macro Markets Morning 4th April 2019

A quieter day as the risk rally stalls, Mrs may has shifted though – Macro Markets Morning 3rd April 2019

on April 3, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The risk on rally faltered a little Tuesday with more mixed equity performance, a bond market dip, and a curious move in copper over the past two days. The S&P managed to end flat.
  • Elsewhere Mrs May has exactly folded but shes been much more conciliatory while I find the comments from BoA chief executive Brian Moynihan that the US economy is in a good place the most important piece of information to be garnered on the day.
Now, Let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaA quieter day as the risk rally stalls, Mrs may has shifted though – Macro Markets Morning 3rd April 2019

TINA and FOMO combine and risk is Awwwnnn – Macro Markets Morning 2nd April 2019

on April 2, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Britain took a step closer to a no-deal exit after the bell in New York. But otherwise it was a very positive start to the week for risk assets with the S&P 500 up 1.2% with similarly positive moves in Europe and a big chunk of Asia Monday.
  • That rally was despite the manufacturing PMI’s across the globe still looking very weak to the bears. But the bulls have the call right now and to them thinks didn’t get worse which is a good thing.
  • Now for the RBA and Australian Budget.
Now, Let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaTINA and FOMO combine and risk is Awwwnnn – Macro Markets Morning 2nd April 2019

Time to be positive risk? – Macro Markets Morning 1st April 2019

on April 1, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Two pieces of data just two. But the release of the China NBS PMI’s over the weekend and the beats they showed might be the start of a sentiment shift in markets which might see the combination of a TINA and FOMO trade drive risk assets. We’ll see. 
  • That’s the sense as we open the week with a rally in the AUDUSD and USDJPY, after bonds may have bottomed Thursday, and as copper busted higher at the end of last week. Not to mention stocks ending a solid quarter with a rally Friday too.
  • A new month, a new quarter, a new outlook? The data, trade war news, and maybe even Brexit will determine that.  

If you missed the weekly over the weekend you can find it here.

Now, Let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaTime to be positive risk? – Macro Markets Morning 1st April 2019

USD gets a lift, Positive trade talk, bonds – Macro Markets Morning 29th March 2019

on March 29, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • We heard from Larry Kudlow that the US/China trade talks will continue for a while and could take months, but Reuters and the Wall Street Journal reported that China is giving further grounds in the talks which helped sentiment a little allowing the S&P 500 to rally 0.35% to 2,815 Thursday. 
  • The USD was quite a bit stronger and is back near resistance…will it best it this time? DXY is at 97.22, Euro is at 1.1222, and the pound fell a little out of bed on Brexit messiness – it’s at 1.3039.
  • Gold too fell out of bed and is at $1290 this morning, oil dipped and recovered after a trump tweet, and silver fell off the top bunk. 
  • Now for month end. Sorry quarter end. 
Now, Let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaUSD gets a lift, Positive trade talk, bonds – Macro Markets Morning 29th March 2019

Oops, bonds fall, stocks dip and EM forex gets funky– Macro Markets Morning 28th March 2019

on March 28, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Stocks were spooked Wednesday as the bond market rally restarted after a mini-hiatus Tuesday. That US 10’s traded down to 2.35% at one point garnered plenty of attention and stocks traders rightly wonder what bonds know that they don’t – or are ignoring. 
  • So while Europe was flattish, US stocks are off a bit, but not terribly – the S&P 500 is down 0.46% to 2,805. The USD is better bid, especially against the Kiwi and Aussie while Mrs may’s offer to resign once her deal is passed has garnered both votes and GBPUSD buying, till the DUP said no.
  • Gold, oil, and silver are all lower – Dr copper is holding in. 
Now, Let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaOops, bonds fall, stocks dip and EM forex gets funky– Macro Markets Morning 28th March 2019

A night of real risk on for a change, interesting – Macro Markets Morning 27th March 2019

on March 27, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Stocks up, bonds a bit volatile, and the USD bid against most things except the Aussie dollar. Gold was down too so it was a night of risk on – if I can use that overhyped term.
  • Realistically though a period of consolidation after last Friday’s moves was a reasonable probability especially with Fed speakers talking so accommodatingly.
  • Now for month end re-balancing in the days ahead.
Now, Let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaA night of real risk on for a change, interesting – Macro Markets Morning 27th March 2019

Stocks fall sharply, USD bounces, data collapse – Macro Markets Morning 25th March 2019

on March 26, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • It took longer than normal to write this morning because while there is much happening their is no grand narrative or thought process which runs through markets and the price action Monday – other than a little bit of a head fake in Asia yesterday. 
  • Anyway at the CoB New York the S&P was down 2 points to 2,798, the USD index was at 96.52 and gold shot higher – that’s probably the interesting move, that one in gold. 
Now, Let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaStocks fall sharply, USD bounces, data collapse – Macro Markets Morning 25th March 2019

Stocks fall sharply, USD bounces, data collapse – Macro Markets Morning 25th March 2019

on March 25, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Mueller is in and there is no collusion from the president or associates according to the report. That means we could see a bit of a Trump Pump but it looks like the pump to dump because markets and the economy has moved on.
  • Indeed weak EU data spooked traders in stocks and especially bonds with the S&P 500 down 1.9% to 2,800 and the US 10’s at 2.45%. The DXY is at 69.65 and the Euro at 1.1294.
  • Brexit is still a mess and Mrs may is under pressure – but we aren’t getting anywhere.

Don’t forget the weekly newsletter was out over the weekend – if you haven’t had a chance to read it you can find it here.

Now, Let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaStocks fall sharply, USD bounces, data collapse – Macro Markets Morning 25th March 2019