Markets Morning Newsletters

Momentum waning in stocks, USD presses – Macro Markets Morning 7th February 2019

on February 7, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Stocks drifted a little as bonds rallied and oil markets stalled. That could be important. At the close the S&P 500 was down 0.2% at 2,731.
  • The USD continues to march higher and is at 96.39 in DXY with the Euro and GBP a little lower as Donald Tusk says there is a ‘special place in hell’ for the Brexiteers who tipped the UK into this mess without a plan.
  • And of course the Aussie dollars woes continued in European and US trade both against the USD and on the crosses as traders bet the chance of a rate cut is real given the housing price falls.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaMomentum waning in stocks, USD presses – Macro Markets Morning 7th February 2019

Stocks still rallying, US dollar grinds higher – Macro Markets Morning 5th February 2019

on February 6, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Stocks continued to run higher Tuesday with the Aussie markets stellar rally followed by solid gains in Europe and then decent gains in the US where, in the lead up to the President’s SoU address the S&P 500 gained 0.46% to 2,737.
  • The US dollar was a little better bid as well making gains in DXY terms and against the Pound and Euro.
  • Gold had an inside day, silver dipped a smidge and oil backed off and away from important resistance once more.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaStocks still rallying, US dollar grinds higher – Macro Markets Morning 5th February 2019

Meltup continues, USD finds its footing – Macro Markets Morning 5th February 2019

on February 5, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The risk rally continues and the leadership of same is firmly in the hands of the Nasdaq tithe the 100 index up another 1.2% in New York Monday. All four US indexes did well.
  • The corollary of that was some pressure on gold, some buoyancy for copper, but the Aussie and other risk currencies lagged because the US dollar found its footing once again. US 10’s are higher despite weaker factory orders.
  • RBA, retails sales, global services PMI’s and then the State of the Union dominate Tuesday’s calender.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaMeltup continues, USD finds its footing – Macro Markets Morning 5th February 2019

US non-farms ignored by a sceptical market – Macro Markets Morning 4th February 2019

on February 4, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • US non farm payrolls and manufacturing PMI’s gave a neat counterpoint of where US growth is relative to the rest of the world Friday. But traders could ignore the 304,000 jobs because the Fed has signalled it is as worried as the traders about the outlook.
  • At the end of play stocks were marginally higher with the S&P 500 at 2,706 up 0.1% for a decent 1.5% gain on the week. Bond rates were a little higher too.
  • Elsewhere Brexit messiness continues, President trump will meet with president Xi, and the Venzuelan situations simmers toward the boil with armed force members abandoning Maduro and President Trump putting troops on the table.
Let’s dive in

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But before that a little House keeping…

The weekend’s weekly is here if you didn’t get a chance to see read it

And the Platinum Weekly Wrap, scan, and outlook – all 55 pages – is here as well for those members

 

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Greg MckennaUS non-farms ignored by a sceptical market – Macro Markets Morning 4th February 2019

Fed afterglow continues and positive sounds in trade talks – Macro Markets Morning 1st February 2019

on February 1, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Stocks continued their post fed bounce with rallies in Europe and in the US with the S&P 500 0.88% to the good at the close of 2,704. That’s back firmly in the 200+ point range before the December funk. Bonds are still rallying too which is interesting
  • The US dollar is weaker agisnt the risk currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi but a little better against the GBP and the Euro which had some awful data to remind traders why they were long USD’s.
  •  And after the bell we got a double load of good news, Amazon reported and beat while the conclusion of the trade talks saw a flood of conciliatory comments from the US side and a letter from Chinese President Xi. President Trump reiterated the march hard deadline but this feels like the Junker meeting at the White House and a de-escalation may be coming.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaFed afterglow continues and positive sounds in trade talks – Macro Markets Morning 1st February 2019

The doves have, Fed capitulates and does what the markets wanted – Macro Markets Morning 31st January 2019

on January 31, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The Fed and Jerome Powell are utterly owned by the markets – stocks in particular. Not only did we see a confirmation of recent utterances which calmed the markets but the fed went further on the balance sheet to wax uber-dovish.
  • The result is a surge in US stocks which has dragged futures with it. The S&P is up 1.55% to 2,681 while the Nasdaq is 2.64% higher. The rally continues and is fuelled by bonds a little lower as the Fed suggests no hikes and a cautious economy – 10’s at 2.68%.m
  • Naturally the USD is weaker, especially against risk currencies like the Aussie and Kiwi. Gold and Silver are higher too.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaThe doves have, Fed capitulates and does what the markets wanted – Macro Markets Morning 31st January 2019

Stocks mixed, oil and gold bounce, now for trade and the Fed – Macro Markets Morning 30th January 2019

on January 30, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Stocks were mixed at the close with tech under pressure as we await Apple’s results. That knocked the Nasdaq 100 down 1% while the S&P dipped a little and the Dow was higher. Interestingly bond rates and gold both rallied which tells where they voted on risk.
  • Speaking of votes the UK Parliament is still acting as if they have had in this discussion about the UK’s exit from the EU. They sent Mrs May back to Brussels to renegotiate the Irish backstop – something the EU says is not negotiatable
  • Elsewhere, US sanctions on Venezuelan oil giant triggered a rally from support overnight but its likely the support is more important than the sanctions otherwise oil would be higher. Forex was quiet awaiting trade and the Fed.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaStocks mixed, oil and gold bounce, now for trade and the Fed – Macro Markets Morning 30th January 2019

China data, earnings, sees risk assets offered – Macro Markets Morning 29th January 2019

on January 29, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • It was a sea of red in global stocks after the gains in the China morning turned to losses in the wake of the weaker than expected corporate profits data. This was then followed by pessimism in Europe and the US where stocks recovered their lows but the S&P 500 still ended down 0.78% at 2,643.
  • Naturally risk assets like the Aussie and copper lost their Friday/Monday Asia morning lustre which helped gold stay above $1,300 but strangely US 10’s held firm at 2.74/5%.
  • In other big news the DOJ indictment on Huawei was released, the US is sanctioning Venezuelan oil firm PDVSA, and Brexit messiness continues. The US also waxed positive about a trade deal – but can one be done with these Huawei indictments?
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaChina data, earnings, sees risk assets offered – Macro Markets Morning 29th January 2019

A quick thought on this week’s data flow – 28th January 2019

on January 28, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

It’s the Australia Day holiday today but I just wanted to quickly drop you this note

PLEASE NOTE – I’ll be back to full service tomorrow with the newsletter and video after the holiday here in Australia.

The US government is open even though the White House says Trump would consider shutting down the government again just 48 hours after ending the longest shutdown in US history. So there is still plenty of water to flow under this bridge.

But in the interim we’ll get a lot of US data which is going to be very important for markets – here’s why.

Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaA quick thought on this week’s data flow – 28th January 2019

Mixed messages on trade, but USD stronger – Macro Markets Morning 25th January 2019

on January 25, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The US dollar is stronger as Friday kicks off after Mario Draghi and his colleagues signalled weaker growth and all measures of monetary support in the toolkit are still on the table. That set the scene along with confusion on the trade talks for the Aussie and Kiwi to fall too.
  • Speaking of trade, stocks were lower after Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said China and the US are miles apart on a deal. But as usual the captain of the Plunge Protection team Steve Mnuchin gave the market a cuddle saying he is hopeful of a deal. So the S&P 500 ended back in the black at 2,642 with a 0.14% gain.
  • Venezuela and Brexit are also in the news.
Let’s dive in

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Greg MckennaMixed messages on trade, but USD stronger – Macro Markets Morning 25th January 2019