Markets Morning Newsletters

US GDP beats, stocks like, USD too – Macro Markets Morning 28 November 2019

on November 28, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The US data was NOT terrible on Wednesday which gave the bulls an excuse to have a little pre-Thanksgiving run higher with the S&P, among others making new highs. It closing up around 3153 for a gain of 0.4%. The Russell 200 is back neatly in the black too which is a good sign for further gains – unless you have too much cash like I do :S.
  • Anyway, the 2.1% print for GDP was a little bit better than the 1.9% expected and the durable goods of +0.6% belted it out of the park relative to the expectation of another negative print of 0.8%. Boom!. Okay not boom time USA, but certainly the economy is still doing a lot better than the had wringer have been forecasting – who knew? Oh, you did my dear subscribers 🙂
  • Elsewhere, bonds were up a little in yield with the 10 year Treasury at 1.77%. So gold is down at $1454, silver too at $16.97. Oil is down after a big build in EIA numbers with WTI at $$58.02 while in forex markets the USD is a little better bid with the DXY at 98.38, the Euro at 1.1001, USDJPY at 109.54, and the Aussie dollar at 0.6777. 

Now,  let’s dive into this morning’s newsletter.  

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trial of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaUS GDP beats, stocks like, USD too – Macro Markets Morning 28 November 2019

US stocks rise again, VIX and Bonds lower…liquidity??? – Macro Markets Morning 27 November 2019

on November 27, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Stocks in the US are up again and the VIX is lower. But so too are bonds in what might be the clearest sign that this is actually a liquidity induced move in US markets. The S&P 500 is up 7 points or 0.22% to 3140 while the DAX was essentially flat at 13236.
  • It’s got to be liquidity folks rather than hope of an improvement in growth or even the trade deal because other risk assets aren’t really playing their part. Sure the Aussie found support, and the price of copper and oil are higher today. But overall there is no cogent story other than a range trading one…which is kind of exciting because the rubber band looks like its getting tighter. As for the big driver right now, trade, we finally heard from President Trump who gave a guarded but positive comment on trade…we’ll see right :S.

Now,  let’s dive into this morning’s newsletter.  

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trial of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaUS stocks rise again, VIX and Bonds lower…liquidity??? – Macro Markets Morning 27 November 2019

– Macro Markets Morning 26 November 2019

on November 26, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Stocks were one out running with the bulls as news broke that maybe we are close to a trade deal actually being inked in a Phase 1 sense and as the IP rule change in China over the weekend emboldened folks to get excited about a cooling in tensions.  
  • Now, price is price and the S&P at 3133 was a fresh record high close and with price above the 15 ema we can’t deny the bull bit of bull market. But I want to hear from the US side on this Chinese pushed positivity because we know what happens when a runner gets caught one out in Pamplona.
  • And I say one out because while the Russell 200 busted up and through resistance – SERIOUSLY BULLISH – Copper, bonds, the Aussie dollar, and oil didn’t really join the party. Not even a little bit. So we wait.   

Now,  let’s dive into this morning’s newsletter.  

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trial of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg Mckenna– Macro Markets Morning 26 November 2019

1 month till Christmas, less to the next traiff deadline, and we wait – Macro Markets Morning 25 November 2019

on November 25, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • We’ve only got a month till Christmas and 10 days less till the next big round of tariffs come into place. So that’s compressing the time frame for both a deal any kind of big sell off to happen. Maybe that’s why the VIX positions hit another record net short position last week.
  • I’m not sure, but my sense is while Hong Kong is a big issue for the agreement and signing of the trade deal, so too can Mike Bloomberg entering the Presidential race be a game-changer. He can beat the Democrat field and he can probably beat trump too. So with the Electoral College already looking harder than 2016 President Trump may be inclined to shore up his farming belt votes with a deal. We’ll see.
  • Elsewise it’s more of the same with stocks in the US holding up better than those in other jurisdictions, the USD a bit better bid but range-bound, and bonds trying to figure out which way to move. We all, still wait for trade news.     

Now,  let’s dive into this morning’s newsletter.  

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trial of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg Mckenna1 month till Christmas, less to the next traiff deadline, and we wait – Macro Markets Morning 25 November 2019

Still waiting on trade, Ugh… – Macro Markets Morning 22 November 2019

on November 22, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • What would you say if your Panglossian newsletter writer is finally starting to get a little concerned about the outlook for the US economy? I know, know, about time some of you will say. But the reality is that being positive, or at least not over the top negative has been the right play for the past 12 or more months. Just look at the asset returns. 
  • Going forward, however, while I note the Fed still has some decent room on the rate cut front to cut should it need to move my Spidey Sense are heightened at the moment – I’ll discuss below.
  • Thursday though was a weird day’s trade, bonds reacted to the Chinese playing nice with the 10 year Treasury up at 1.77% now but stocks haven’t done much with the S&P 500 down a little to 3103 in what’s been an inside day for it and thus of no real informational content. Europe was all read, copper is down, the Aussie and Euro too, while gold and silver followed their inverted path with bond yields.     

Now,  let’s dive into this morning’s newsletter.  

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trial of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaStill waiting on trade, Ugh… – Macro Markets Morning 22 November 2019

A quick take and a couple of charts – Macro Markets Morning 22 November 2019

on November 21, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The pressure is on – Congress has to a certain extent snookered President Trump insofar as he can hardly veto a bill on HongKong with this much support on both sides of the aisle. And that is happening as the two sides argue over the specifics of the Phase1 trade deal which is increasingly starting to look like another backslide into higher tariffs – just like the collapse of talks in May.
  • Stocks again came back from the brink with a bounce from just in front of the 15 day ema before the S&P 500 closed down just 12 points or 0.4% at 3108.5 -17 points off the low of the day. That’s one heck of a recovery. But it looks like day trading rather than anything concrete because US 10’s and other rates are lower.
  • The 10’s are 1.745% back below the old trendline and looking biased lower yet. The Aussie dollar just under 68 cents again and gold just below a break back into the old range as it sits at $1473 this morning tends to support bond, not stock, traders. So we’ll see how things go, but I am comfortable with my decision yesterday to lift my hedges.            

Now,  let’s dive into this morning’s newsletter.  

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trial of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaA quick take and a couple of charts – Macro Markets Morning 22 November 2019

Bonds and stocks diverging, lifting stock hedges – Macro Markets Morning 20 November 2019

on November 20, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • President Trump was at his belligerent best Tuesday and there is a bill going to the Senate in my morning which could derail the Phase 1 trade deal utterly. But traders in the US didn’t seem to care with the S&P 500 closing at 3120 barely unchanged. Interestingly the Russell 2000 tried to break out but didn’t.
  • What’s interesting though is that bonds have rallied in the US and across the globe with the US 10-Year at 1.7860% this morning. Interestingly Italian bonds rose a little which as I highlight below could be a warning – or at least something to watch.
  • In other markets, gold is a little higher and trying to break higher and given I’ve suggested I’m lifting my cash hedge my sense is it will do so soon. It’s all about trade still…it’s the only Macro game in town.       

Now,  let’s dive into this morning’s newsletter.  

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trial of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaBonds and stocks diverging, lifting stock hedges – Macro Markets Morning 20 November 2019

Stocks ignore negative trade headlines, copper, bonds, not so much – Macro Markets Morning 19 November 2019

on November 19, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • US stocks are higher again despite concerns about the chances of a trade deal actually getting done seem to be slipping. Is it because it’s a bull market, or is it central bank stimulus via the Fed’s non-Qe injection? It doesn’t really matter for the moment because the price action tells the story. That said I’m pencilling in a run back to 3080 over the next couple of weeks.
  • Part of that is because copper, bonds, and gold tell me there is residual concern still lingering and at some point even the S&P will need a break and a pullback. 3080 is simply the 15 ema so it doesn’t actually threaten the overall rally at the moment – simply the pause that refreshes. And of course, it’s still all about trade. So on a very quiet data day newsflow is again going to move markets.
  • Also possibly market-moving could be the RBA minutes today. I know they shouldn’t be, but if the reveal a less dovish central bank than expected the Aussie has some catching up to do with the Euro.     

Now,  let’s dive into this morning’s newsletter.  

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trial of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaStocks ignore negative trade headlines, copper, bonds, not so much – Macro Markets Morning 19 November 2019

FOMO is back – Macro Markets Morning 16 November 2019

on November 18, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • FOMO in stocks is a thing again. We heard it from BAML’s Michael Hartnett in his wrap of the latest fund managers survey last week and it seemed clear in the surge Friday that the market, or a subset of it anyway, want to buy on any good news on trade while the sellers haven’t had traction for weeks – whatever the story.
  • So, we saw new record weekly closes, fresh record closes, for the Dow and S&P 500 Friday as they rose around 0.8% to end at 28004 and 3120 respectively. It was all green in the big European indexes as well and Asia looks set to have another solid day as well with China’s Xinhua reporting “constructive talks” in a story Sunday.
  • But, copper at $2.63, gold at $1467, US 10’s at 1.83%, USDJPY at 108.87, and the Aussie dollar at 0.6812 as we start the week suggests this is a very specific equity market rally with more Macro markets not buying the hyperbole and clear attempts by the Trump Administration to manage the market. All the while Hong Kong burns and is the Grey Rhino which could derail everything…     

Now,  let’s dive into this morning’s newsletter.  

And for non-subscribers, If you want to have a trial of the daily subscriber service to get this and the 3000 odd words I write – and lots and lots of chart – on markets each day you can sign up here for a trial

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Greg MckennaFOMO is back – Macro Markets Morning 16 November 2019