Markets Morning Newsletters

Fed opens the door to rate cuts – Macro Markets Morning 20 June 2019

on June 20, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The market has reacted to the FOMC statement and Powell press conference as if a rate cut in July is guaranteed. But it seems that while the Fed has opened the door how G20 and trade goes is likely the key to how soon rates are cut.
  • That said. during the press conference though Powell did intimate that the current conditions are enough for a cut it is simply that FOMC members are waiting to see if there is persistence of the risks to the outlook.
  • The key takeaway is that the Fed has marked itself to market and in saying – again during the press conference – that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure Powell has signalled it is only a matter of time till rates start being cut in order to “SUSTAIN THE EXPANSION”.

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaFed opens the door to rate cuts – Macro Markets Morning 20 June 2019

Trade War Glasnost – Macro Markets Morning 19 June 2019

on June 19, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The US side sought out China and requested a call between the two Presidents it seems with the result being that there is a meeting between Trump and Xi after all at the G20.
  • That’s good news and stocks loved i Through the promise of stimulus from Mario Draghi in Europe and continentals bourses really loved it with the DAX up 2% while the S&P rose 1% to 2917 – breaking the range.
  • Oil ripped higher too, but bonds did not. Because central banks are signalling lower rates. It’s a perfect tailwind for stocks and risk assets if the trade battle can see a deal at G20. We’ll see. 

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaTrade War Glasnost – Macro Markets Morning 19 June 2019

Aussie under pressure, stocks hold firm, oil drops – Macro Markets Morning 18 June 2019

on June 18, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • It was a fairly quiet day’s trade Monday but there were still plenty of moving parts. Bond yields sold off and then recovered, stocks were mostly higher and forex saw the USD come under a little pressure before recovering.
  • The Aussie dollar remains friendless however. It’s not getting beaten up but it’s drifting a little as the trade war drags and folks worry about the global growth outlook.
  • Oil was interesting in that the Ira’s warned they will breach their nuclear agreement, had a meeting with the Russians which came to nothing, and we heard chat the US is sending more troops to the Middle East – yet oil fell more than 1%.

I’ve also updated my positioning thoughts for the week here is a link.

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaAussie under pressure, stocks hold firm, oil drops – Macro Markets Morning 18 June 2019

Positioning Thoughts and System Signals on Macro Markets – June 17 2019

on June 18, 2019

G’day folks,

Here is a dedicated short note on my Positioning thoughts and the system. This, I hope, will then allow you to have a look at your own charts and protocols and see where maybe my thoughts and system accord with OR CHALLENGE your own.

I hope then this is where I can add real value.

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Greg MckennaPositioning Thoughts and System Signals on Macro Markets – June 17 2019

The Fed will dominate this week – Macro Markets Morning 17 June 2019

on June 17, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The Fed, BoE, and BoJ all meet this week. But it is the Fed which poses the greatest market risk given so much is priced into expectations that a cut might come this week and will come by July.
  • In the lead up Friday and with the G20 now visible over the horizon US and globally stocks were mostly read, but also mostly mildly so.
  • The USD got its mojo back, gold had a big run then ugly reversal, the Aussie dollar is on the brink, and the conflict bid in oil couldn’t stop it from still having a down week.

And in case you missed the weekly over the weekend here is a link. 

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaThe Fed will dominate this week – Macro Markets Morning 17 June 2019

Oil reverses after tanker attacks, stocks and gold up, bond yields down – Macro Markets Morning 14 June 2019

on June 14, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The big story is the attack on two tankers in the Gulf of Oman and the US calling out Iran as responsible. That saw oil spike, but also give back quite a bit of its bid. But it helped move plenty of other markets too.
  • Gold is higher at $1341, bond rates are lower with the 10’s at 2.09, and stocks are up on an energy and consumer cyclicals (go figure) bid with the S&P closing at 2891, up 0.4%.
  • Elsewhere a speech by China’s chief trade negotiator Liu Thursday had the colour of digging in, though it might just be about supporting the economy. Still no announcement of a G20 meeting which is curious.  

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaOil reverses after tanker attacks, stocks and gold up, bond yields down – Macro Markets Morning 14 June 2019

Oil capitulates, stocks drag, and trade dispute is in the air – Macro Markets Morning 13 June 2019

on June 13, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Stocks are rolling but not yet broken lower as President Trump’s sweet nothings fall flat in a sign – perhaps – traders are going into G20 sceptical, not hopeful. So the S&P 500 was down a little at 2879 for a 0.2% loss. The Nasdaq did worse, as did Europe, and Niikkei futures.
  • The US dollar was however stronger as Germany issued 10’s at a record low yield and oil collapsed with WTI off more than $2 to $51.12, gold is higher on the ructions at $1333 and risk currencies like the AUDUSD are lower and under pressure.
  • Keep your eye out for China state media in the next few days and of course Australian employment and German inflation Thursday.  

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaOil capitulates, stocks drag, and trade dispute is in the air – Macro Markets Morning 13 June 2019

President trump rages, at everything – Macro Markets Morning 12 June 2019

on June 12, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • Okay, we’re even. That seems to be the takeaway from Tuesday’s trade with major US stocks largely unchanged, the USD not moved overly much, oil nor gold either. So it’s reset and ready for Wednesday.
  • That’s not to say nothing happened because president Trump was very busy, bashing the Fed again and talking about the China trade battle. Oh and he received a “beautiful” letter from the leader of North Korea.
  • Something else very interesting happened though too, there are a number of very ugly two day candle set ups across a number of stock indexes. Something to watch – more below.  

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaPresident trump rages, at everything – Macro Markets Morning 12 June 2019

Positioning Thoughts and System Signals on Macro Markets – June 10 2019

on June 11, 2019

G’day folks,

Here is a dedicated short note on my Positioning thoughts and the system. This, I hope, will then allow you to have a look at your own charts and protocols and see where maybe my thoughts and system accord with OR CHALLENGE your own.

I hope then this is where I can add real value.

read more
Greg MckennaPositioning Thoughts and System Signals on Macro Markets – June 10 2019

Trump bump on Mexico pushes stocks, bond yileds, and the USD higher – Macro Markets Morning 11 June 2019

on June 11, 2019

Morning folks – Welcome to McKenna Macro’s Market Mornings.

In a rush? Here’s the key takeaway

  • The S&P hit and reversed a little off last week’s target Monday as the euphoria of the “actual” announcement of the Mexican tariff postponement over the weekend built on last week’s expectation of same. But while the Trump giveth to the markt with the one hand he taketh with the other, threatening China with full escalation if President Xi doesn’t turn up to the G20 :S.
  • Anyway, at the close the S&P was up 0.47% at 2886, pretty much all the other stock markets which were open were also up, as were bond rates with the US 10’s at 2.15%, while the Greenback got a 0.25% lift in DXY terms. 

Now,  let’s dive in to this morning’s newsletter

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Greg MckennaTrump bump on Mexico pushes stocks, bond yileds, and the USD higher – Macro Markets Morning 11 June 2019